By Ted Gavin, CTP, NCPM, Managing Director & Founding Partner
It’s not just the headlines — the storm clouds are real.
This month, bankruptcy filings spiked compared to the same time last year. The U.S. economy contracted in Q1 2025, marking the first shrinkage in years, driven by massive 4Q 2024 spending to get inventory in advance of tariffs. At the same time, lending is tightening. Banks are pulling back on advances, especially as tariffs introduce new volatility and make it harder to assess the value of collateral. Debt is more expensive — and harder to get.
If you’re a CEO, board member, or investor, the message is clear: now is the time to get serious about restructuring.
The ripple effects of new and threatened tariffs are being felt across industries — and we haven’t yet seen the full impact. Trade disruptions are hitting cash flow, increasing uncertainty, and straining supplier and customer relationships. The whipsaw effect is making it harder for lenders to price risk or advance capital, tightening access to the very lifelines some businesses rely on.
As the economic picture sharpens, we expect bankruptcy activity to continue rising. But here’s the truth: by the time you’re in a formal restructuring, your options have already narrowed. To quote retired Judge Christopher Sontchi, “The reality is that bad things happen and even successful companies need to be ready for the unforeseen business disruption over the horizon. Have a CRO in your bullpen. You’ll probably need her.”
Always be thinking about restructuring. Every company — especially those carrying significant debt or operating in disrupted sectors — should be actively scenario-planning right now. Restructuring isn’t just for distressed companies. It’s a mindset. A proactive restructuring strategy lets leadership assess core operations, streamline costs, manage liquidity, and build flexibility into capital structures before crises hits. Cash is king – knowing how to manage cash while optimizing operations like a CRO is a rare and important skill.
Waiting means losing leverage. Acting early creates choices.
What Should Boards and Investors Be Asking?
- How strong is our cash position — really?
Are you adjusting for tighter lending conditions and a possible revenue decline? Can you withstand a prolonged delay in receivables or a supplier price spike? Or tariffs? Or not tariffs? Or tariffs again? - Do we understand our refinancing risk?
If your company relies on rolling over or refinancing debt, what happens if that window closes? The cost of capital is rising; terms are tightening. - What restructuring scenarios have we modeled?
Have you identified potential cost reduction strategies, divestiture options, or operational changes that could be executed quickly? If you had to, what expenses would you cut now without impairing the core business? - Who is on our team — and are they ready?
Do you have legal, financial, and communications advisors lined up who understand restructuring? Building those relationships now, before urgency sets in, is crucial. - What signals are we watching?
Economic signals, sector-specific triggers, and internal performance indicators should all be part of a regular board-level review.
Restructuring isn’t failure — it’s foresight. Restructuring isn’t the enemy – liquidation is. In a volatile economy, resilience is built by those who plan ahead. Whether or not your business ultimately needs to restructure, being prepared ensures you’ll navigate uncertainty from a position of strength.
Because in 2025, the companies that win will be the ones that don’t wait.
